Many read Bush’s accepting of Rumsfeld’s resignation* as part of the Democratic victory in the house and senate. But some government officials say Robert M. Gates nomination was “timed to anticipate the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group,” not the change in congress, and there’s good reason to believe they’re right.

The Iraq Study Group is a bi-partisan commission that will make strategic recommendations about Iraq after thanksgiving (aka “thanks for genocide, colonialism, and rape day”). Gates spent over eight months on the Iraq Study Group led by James Baker and Lee Hamilton. And The New York Times reports that “Mr. Gates will be drawing on his experience and contacts from the administration of Mr. Bush’s father, including the former security adviser Brent Scowcroft and former Secretary of State James A. Baker III” (same nytimes.com link as above).

So the big question is: if Gates becomes Secretary of Defense how will he handle Iraq? And the answer may well come from the Iraq Study Group.

According to the New Republic Baker has junked immediate withdrawal, stay the course, and a plan by Democratic Senator Joe Biden and Les Gelb-ex president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

The New Republic says Baker is considering two options:

“The first is a modified version of the withdrawal plan proposed by the Center for American Progress's Lawrence Korb, which the Baker Commission refers to as "Redeploy and Contain." Troops would be moved into neighboring countries, where they would only be used for quick strikes against terrorists in Iraq, and the administration would concentrate on international diplomacy, including talks with Iran and Syria, to solve Iraq's political problems.”

“The other option leaked is "Stability First," a cousin of the plan proposed by Kenneth Pollack at the Brookings Institution. It would focus the lion's share of U.S. troops on stabilizing Baghdad and turning it into a model for the rest of Iraq, a move that would, the thinking goes, start to change perceptions about the occupation and smooth the path toward national reconciliation and an oil-sharing agreement.”

Those of us screwed by Rummy felt vindicated in seeing him go, but his replacement is sure to be just as bad, if not worse. A friend told me this yesterday and I think he’s right:

“The are two kinds of people in the world. The oppressors and the oppressed. We are always in struggle and what matters is which kind of people wins, not which oppressor.”

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* This was not the first time Rumsfeld felt incapable of handling the job. Rumsfeld handed in his resignation at least twice after the Abu Ghraib torture scandal, but Bush refused.